While there is plenty of debate in scientific circles as to whether climate change is the result of human activity or just part of the ongoing natural cycle of warming and cooling of the Earth, there is little doubt that our terrestrial climate is changing.

Climate models show that Canada’s agricultural regions will likely see drier summers from coast to coast, but increased winter and spring precipitation. This means that farmers may have to deal with both too much water during the seeding season and too little water during the growing season, all in the same year. Projections also show that although much of southern Canada will be drier overall in the summer, it could also face an increase in short-lived but very intense rainfall events. In addition to the increased threat of drought and flooding, wet springs and autumns may make it challenging for farmers to take advantage of the longer growing season promised by rising temperatures. Early or late rain can simply make the land too wet to support farm machinery, and can hinder important seeding, maturing or drying phases of many crops.

Canada’s prairie provinces have experienced the consequences of such seasonal shifts in precipitation: in 2016 a hot, dry spring caused widespread drought. This extended dry weather was followed by torrential rains in the late summer that caused flooding in many areas, from northern Alberta to eastern Manitoba. And, in 2017, southern Saskatchewan experienced the driest July in over 130 years of record-keeping. For farmers in the region, the heat and dryness was especially damaging because it followed a rainy spring that had been so wet that they’d been unable to properly seed their fields.

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