Nearly 16,000 more individuals are competing at FEI shows and events worldwide than 14 years ago; newly collated FEI statistics show that 42,961 athletes were registered to compete internationally last year, with 78,450 horses, a 30,000 equine increase since 2009.

The FEI calendar is similarly expanding to meet demand, with remarkable growth in some of the “younger” equestrian nations. Yet while the base of the pyramid is widening fast, there is little sign yet of “new” countries producing a horse and rider of Olympic capability, even when riders base themselves abroad to gain experience, or when a country benefits from the decision of an established athlete to switch nationality. Despite efforts since Rio de Janiero 2016 to create Olympic opportunities for more of the 136 FEI member countries, fewer flags will be flown at Versailles than in Tokyo.

Forty-nine countries have made definite entries at Paris, all of them having been represented at previous Olympic Games. Eventually 50 flags flew at Tokyo; 55 countries had initially qualified teams or individuals but some could not take up their places.

Moreover, nearly half the stables at Versailles will be occupied by 10 historically strong equestrian countries (including Canada and the US,) each with full teams in all three disciplines. All of them have been competing in FEI sport since before 1951.

If there are any “no-shows” in Paris and eventual flags do not significantly exceed the 43 at Rio, this could renew calls for  reinstatement of the four-member team with drop score format. Many still regard it as more horse-friendly, and not as difficult for the general public to understand as has been argued.

The teams-of-four format was controversially axed after Rio. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) would not budge from allowing a maximum of 200 horses to start at Tokyo, which left the FEI juggling with the math to admit more countries. It was decided that smaller teams of three with no drop score would increase the number of berths available and – in theory – give more countries a chance.

But the target of 55 flags at Tokyo always seemed ambitious; indeed, when first mooted at the 2016 FEI Sport Forum, some delegates openly questioned whether there were actually 55 countries with a single rider of Olympic capability, given the inexperience of so many FEI member countries.

Qualifying your country under the complex regional quota system for Olympic Games can be less challenging than obtaining the MER (Minimum Eligibility Requirement), a mandatory certificate of horse and rider competence that is essential before a definite entry can be made. Some riders are often seen making multiple attempts right up to the late June MER deadline. (A prospective Lithuanian eventer unsuccessfully requested to keep trying for his MER at a CCI on June 23 – his Paris place was given to the Czech Republic.) Many countries did not even have the luxury of second eligible riders to enter as possible reserves for the individual at the nominations stage.

After Tokyo, Olympic qualifications were tightened up a little, which may account for the slight drop in countries qualified for Paris.

Softer qualifications might help equestrianism move closer to “universality,” the IOC’s term to emphasise inclusivity and global reach. But it will risk seriously over-facing some horses and riders; two individual jumpers whose qualifying points largely came from two-star shows with only a handful of starters did not manage to complete the first round in Tokyo. That in turn can provide the “bad pictures” the FEI strives to avoid; public perception will be heightened in Paris as never before.

Definite Paris entries

  • Countries with full teams in all three disciplines: Canada, USA, Australia, Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, plus France as host.
  • Countries with teams in two disciplines: Austria, Brazil, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Switzerland.
  • Countries with teams in one discipline: Denmark, Israel, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Portugal, UAE, New Zealand
  • Countries with one or more individuals only: Argentina, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, India, Republic of Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Morocco, Moldova, Norway, Singapore, Republic of South Africa, Syria, Thailand, Venezuela.